Will Trump's Tax Plan Pass: Here Is The Complete Probability Matrix

April 29, 2017 - 4:14am
Will Trump's Tax Plan Pass: Here Is The Complete Probability Matrix

With global equity markets enjoying the biggest weekly inflow since the election on what BofA described was rising expectations of a Trump tax deal, the obvious question is "what is the probability of the Trump tax deal getting done." And, as it turns out, that is also the wrong question, because as Morgan Stanley shows, the outcome from Trump's tax proposal is not binary. In fact, there are nine distinct possible results, depending on how the various binomial outcomes pan out.

One Man's Reality Check From "A Corner Of Flyover Red America"

April 29, 2017 - 3:57am

Authored by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
While the news waves groan with stories about “America’s Opioid Epidemic” you may discern that there is little effort to actually understand what’s behind it, namely, the fact that life in the United States has become unspeakably depressing, empty, and purposeless for a large class of citizens. I mean unspeakably literally. If you want evidence of our inability to construct a coherent story about what’s happening in this country, there it is.

Two Army Rangers Killed During Raid On ISIS Compound In Afghanistan

April 29, 2017 - 3:25am
Two Army Rangers Killed During Raid On ISIS Compound In Afghanistan

US military casualties abroad are starting to pile up again. Two weeks after the US dropped the MOAB over a cave complex in the Nangarhar region in Afghanistan, reportedly in an attempt to flush out ISIS operatives, on Friday the Defense Department reported that on Thursday two Army Rangers died during a raid on the same compound in Afghanistan.

Is The Dollar Bull Market Over? (And What That Would Mean For Your Portfolio)

April 29, 2017 - 3:15am
Is The Dollar Bull Market Over? (And What That Would Mean For Your Portfolio)

Authored by Bryce Coward via Gavekal Capital blog,
Since the beginning of 2017, the US dollar has struggled against nearly every major currency, calling into question the idea that the US dollar is still in a bull market. Indeed, since the dollar made its cyclical high on the first day of 2017 trading, it has put in a series of lower highs and lower lows no matter how you measure it (chart 1).

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