Unlike Monday's global PMI deterioration (which sent markets around the globe soaring), there was little in terms of macroeconomic data overnight (German IFO earlier missed on expectations and business climate but beat on current assessment) so the "market made the news." These came most from the USDJPY which has continued to fall, sliding to 111.85 overnight, and dragging the Nikkei to a -0.4% drop.
After refusing to even consider the possibility of a recession in the US for over a year, the first cracks in Goldman's armor are starting to appear. Over the weekend chief equity strategist David Kostin said that while the probability of a recession according to GS economists remains low, saying that "their model suggests the US has an 18% probability of recession during the next year and 24% likelihood during the next two years", Goldman's clients and investors "continue to inquire about the impact a contraction would have on the US equity market."
At the peak of the last financial crisis, as the credit liquidation wave was jumping from one highly levered product to the next, one of the hardest hit sectors was Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO) space, where the rout and massive P&L losses across most tranches led to a revulsion for new issuance, which effectively shut down the sector for the next 3 years.
Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,
That didn’t take long. We’ve just had another short-covering rip from the 1820 Bullard Bottom on the S&P 500 and it’s already petered out. Not even another one of the St. Louis Fed President’s bouncing billiard balls could keep the machines slamming the buy key.
Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end...
... a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutive 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.