From the latest Macro View by current Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader, Mark Cudmore
U.K. Does Brexit Best When It Does Nothing At All: Macro View
With apologies to my compatriot Ronan Keating, there’s a non-negligible and rising probability that Brexit doesn’t happen. Ultimately that would be a positive for U.K. assets.
It has been a tough week already for those that heat their homes in Britain (and those that trade Natural Gas). Following extreme weather warnings and the forties pipeline crack shutdown, an explosion at one of the Europe’s biggest gas hubs further tightened supplies sending gas futures prices up by the most in 8 years.
The need for consolidation in the face of the ongoing Amazon - and broader online menace - is becoming irresistible, even for the biggest and best mall operators. Today the French-based Unibail-Rodamco, the biggest commercial landlord in Europe, agreed to purchase Westfield, the Australian-based mall operator. Unibail is offering 0.018844 shares and $2.67 cash for each Westfield share – a 65/35 stock/cash ratio – which values Westfield at an enterprise value of $24.7 billion. Westfield owns 35 shopping malls in the UK and US and is building a new mall in the Italian city of Milan.
E-mini futures are modestly in the green this morning, though net of fair value the S&P index is poised for another record high open as the FOMC begins its last meeting for 2017 in which it is expected to raise rates by 25bps. European stocks gain while Asian equities slide led by weakness in Chinese airplane stocks.
The market expected Mark Carney to avoid it but it was just not meant to be.
The BoE Governor will suffer the ignominy of a bizarre tradition of having to write a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining why UK inflation is more than 1.0% above the target of 2.0%. The market had expected the UK CPI to rise by a modest 0.2% month-on-month, taking the year-on-year rate up to 3.0%. Instead the month-on-month rate hit 0.3% pushing the annual rate to 3.1%, its highest rate since March 2012.