The Empire Fed Manufacturing survey has been in contraction (below 0) since July 2015 and while February's -16.64 print was above January's -19.37, it was dramatically worse than the expected -10.0. New Orders and Shipments remain in contraction as both prices paid and recived tumbled. Hope improved modestly but remains markedly below December levels, as CapEx spending expectations weakened once again.

Still - we always have Services to take the pressure off manufacturing, right? Oh wait...

Turkey shelled Syria for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday as Ankara steps up efforts to bolster rebels in the face of an advance by the Kurdish YPG. “As many as 150 terrorists were killed during the 4-day-long shelling targeting PYD points,” the pro-government Yeni Safak wrote today, adding that “the PYD, backed by both the US and Russia, is working with President Bashar al-Assad to control areas along the Turkish border.”

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel has backed a controversial call by Turkey to impose a no-fly zone over northern Syria. She said it would help alleviate the refugee crisis: “In the current situation it would be helpful, if there could be such an area, where none of the parties are allowed to launch aerial attacks, that is to say, a kind of no-fly zone“ Turkish President Erdogan threatened Europe with a new migrant wave renewing calls for no-fly zone in Syria just days ago.

Are we really having this conversation? Is this a real question? Where am I from? @roddreher @tobydanna @WAFB https://t.co/VCCvD02Qjl

— Caleb Bernacchio (@calebb_caleb) February 15, 2016

WAFB is a Baton Rouge television station. And yes, we are having this conversation. The thing is, the answer to this real question might really turn out to be, “Hell, no!”

As traders slowly (and then quickly) woke up to the fact that a "freeze" at record levels of production is not a "cut", WTI Crude has collapsed over 5% from its hope-stricken illiquid highs of early trading - now back below $30.

As Barclays warns:

• OPEC OUTPUT FREEZE WOULD LEAVE 1Q SURPLUS OF 1M B/D: BARCLAYSOIL UPSIDE LIMITED EVEN IF OUTPUT FREEZE SUCCESSFUL: BARCLAYS

And the reaction to reality...

And this is taking the shine off the equity market exuberance...