As traders slowly (and then quickly) woke up to the fact that a "freeze" at record levels of production is not a "cut", WTI Crude has collapsed over 5% from its hope-stricken illiquid highs of early trading - now back below $30.

As Barclays warns:

• OPEC OUTPUT FREEZE WOULD LEAVE 1Q SURPLUS OF 1M B/D: BARCLAYSOIL UPSIDE LIMITED EVEN IF OUTPUT FREEZE SUCCESSFUL: BARCLAYS

And the reaction to reality...

And this is taking the shine off the equity market exuberance...

The world let out a collective gasp of shock last night when the PBOC announced that in January, China had created an absolutely gargantuan CNY3.4 trillion in new total debt (Total Social Financing) - or about $520 billion - more than 50% higher than expected, of which CNY2.1 trillion was in the form of new loans.

The breakdown of that massive number is shown in the table below:

What happened? Here is Goldman's explanation:

• Oil eases off highs after output freeze agreement (Reuters)
• Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle (Reuters)
• China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
• Obama starts work to pick Supreme Court justice amid political 'bluster' (Reuters)
• The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening Future (BBG)
• Apollo Global to buy security services company ADT for $7 billion (Reuters)
• Anglo Hastens Retreat From Coal, Iron Ore as Losses Double (BBG)
• Markets Putting Faith in QE4 (WSJ)

One day after markets saw a violent return of optimism, which sent stocks around the globe and US equity futures soaring (the US was closed for President's Day) driven by terrible Japanese and Chinese economic data which in turn hinted at more central bank easing, animal spirits have cooled off despite some truly unprecedented Chinese credit numbers.

The e-mail below just came in. I’m not going to use the reader’s name or geographical location, and have altered slightly a couple of lines, to protect the reader’s privacy:

I hardly know why I am writing to you except that I think you’re a good listener. You treat your readers very kindly. And on the internet to boot!

War is coming and Trump is one of the first indicators from our side.