European stocks rise the first day in four, with Asian stocks, S&P futures and the Dollar all gaining following strong Apple earnings ahead of today's Fed decision and the U.K. parliament's first vote on the Article 50 bill.
European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.
One of the least convoluted, most insightful and thus best forecasts of what the first few months of the Trump administration will look like, came from one of the respondents of today's Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. This is what the respondent said:
President Trump looks to do things that will be favorable for business, which would improve employment and growth if successful. However, protesters are all over the place, so I tend to think that will cause trouble for the country and for business.
In what will likely be interpreted as the latest "test" by the Kremlin to gauge western military preparedness, Reuters reports that Russia has quietly unleashed the biggest military build up targeting the Arctic since the fall of the Soviet Union. "It is part of a push to firm Moscow's hand in the High North as it vies for dominance with traditional rivals Canada, the United States, and Norway as well as newcomer China." It is also part of the ongoing scramble for resources above the commodity rich arctic circle.
Markets will again zero in on the U.S. this week, and not just because of Donald Trump in Bloomberg's opinion. The Federal Reserve meeting and nonfarm payrolls may set a clear direction for dollar and yields for the next few months. U.S. GDP data on Friday showed the largest negative contribution from net exports since 2010. This will give the president ammunition for his Twitter feed because it confirms his view on the evils of globalization. So prepare. Beyond Trump’s rhetoric, it’s going to be a big week for orthodox economic developments in the United States.