While China's unprecedented currency moves have quickly become the main talking point across global markets which otherwise have started off 2017 in an eerily calm fashion, it is the sudden surge in two-way volatility that has emerged a major threat to global market stability.
European shares fell modestly, Asian equities declined for the first day in three, and US equity futures were unchanged before the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. China’s offshore yuan fell the most in a year to pare a record weekly rally, while Mexico’s peso climbed after the central bank sold dollars. Oil was trading lower in early trading.
"I’ve got news for you," warns Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, the world is a complicated place and getting more so, not less...
This is not your happy, some would say mind-numbing, environment where the only thing that ultimately mattered was blind faith in the global commitment of central banks to “do whatever it takes”. It will not serve investors well to fall back on analysis by reductio ad simplicate.
Last February, when Kyle Bass announced the upcoming launch of a dedicated fund to short the Yuan, as part of a bigger macro short unveiled in his report on “The $34 Trillion Experiment: China’s Banking System and the World’s Largest Macro Imbalance”, many were skeptical if not outright mocked the Hayman Capital founder.
With the Dow Jones flirting around 20,000 for the better part of the past two weeks, one prominent commentator remained skeptical: Dennis Gartman was "marginally net short." Well, no more.