With the Trump administration lately focused mostly on domestic policy - even as Mueller's ongoing Russian probe continues to hang over Trump's head - US power and influence in the Middle East has found itself in retreat, a continuation of unsuccessful and/or failed policies implemented by the Obama administration, resulting in a power vacuum that has to be filled, and one country has emerged willing to take America's spot.
Having noted earlier the 44%, or 11-year high, in short Treasury positions among all bond traders (according to the latest JPM client survey), and a record high 70% among JPM's "active" clients, we suggested that the most likely next move in the Treasury sector is a squeeze on even the faintest news that derails the recent hawkish narrative. And, predictably if aonly for now, this morning Treasuries have ground higher, with 10-year note futures matching Asia session highs, and the yield on the 10Y sliding to session lows of 2.33%.
What about the catalyst?
It's deja vu all over again.
In a repeat of yesterday's session, where US equities and the dollar levitated in a one-way trade, Tuesday's muted session - where in addition to closed China and South Korean markets, Germany's Dax is also shut for holiday - has seen early dollar and European equity strength, while the S&P is set for new record highs amid higher E-minis and a VIX that is again lower after 5 consecutive days of declines.
The largest secession movement since Brexit and the biggest mass shooting in American history... buy stocks!!
Spain felt the pain...
While S&P futures were modestly higher, rising 0.1% in a quiet session in which China, South Korea, India and Hong Kong were closed for holidays, the Euro, Spanish stocks and bonds were broadly lower as Spain faces its worst constitutional crisis in years following a dramatic, violent crackdown on Sunday's Catalan independence referendum in which 89% of the voters wanted to secede from Spain.