Eric Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, the people behind the weekly Macro Voices podcast, have released an extended, hour-long interview with Julian Brigden founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, in which among the various topics discussed (see the attached slidepack for supporting materials and charts) were:
Once upon a time Washington was simple: on one hand you had Republican interests, on the other: Democrats, and inbetween them perhaps, the occasional independent or "green." Now... it's less simple. At last check, DC currently boasts at least nine different parties, groups, factions or ideologies. Which is why keeping track of who wants what, and how the various groups allign, in US politics has become quite complicated.
Judging by recent market action, it is becoming apparent that traders and investors are getting if not tired, then displeased with having to trade what boils down to one of two narratives: Trump Reflation Trade On, and - as has been the case recently - Trump Trade Off. As much is apparent in the latest weekly kickstart note from David Kostin who writes that with the market struggling to readjust its expectations for US government policy following the move away from health care reform, client conversations make clear that investors fall into two camps:
VIX Call volumes had exploded in recent weeks, accelerating to their highest levels since Brexit ahead of the healthcare vote, which saw VIX spike dramatically to 2017 highs.
However, in the aftermath of the pulled vote debacle, VIX collapsed at a near record pace, as did VIX Call volumes (trading at their lowest level since 2016).
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