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Another "Recession Dead Ahead" Indicator Just Hit

Another "Recession Dead Ahead" Indicator Just Hit

During the FOMC press conference this week, Janet Yellen was pushed by Bloomberg's Kathleen Hays to explain why she hiked rates amid what was evidently not a surging economy.

While Q1 looks to be the weakest economic growth period for a rate hike since 1980, today we got some more confirming real-time 'hard' data confirming the facts that the US economy is anything but as strong and resilient as Yellen proclaimed it.

Industrial Production has never declined on a 24-month basis without the US economy being in recession...

Another 'Hard' Data Disappointment: US Industrial Production Misses, Stagnant In February

Another 'Hard' Data Disappointment: US Industrial Production Misses, Stagnant In February

After a brief jump in December, US industrial production was unchanged in February (thanks to tumble in utilities which offset modest manufacturing gains). Industrial Production peaked in the US in Nov 2014, as the US equity market took off after the end of QE3.

February saw Industrial production unchanged against expectations of a 0.2% MoM rise (and January was revised modestly higher).

But then again, when has real economic data mattered?

 

A Burgeoning Growth Engine for Costco: Wanton Alcoholism

A Burgeoning Growth Engine for Costco: Wanton Alcoholism

Costco has to be the single best retail business in the world. A new Costco just opened in area and I signed up for their 'executive' membership card, which is something that I feel wholly ridiculous -- but I did so nevertheless.

In order to attain the privilege of shopping there, customers must pay an annual fee. In an era where every retailer is tripping over themselves to attract customers, this concept isn't dually brilliant and absurd.

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