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"Policy Error" Is Back: Deutsche Warns Two Things Can Derail The Market's "Most Crowded Trades"

"Policy Error" Is Back: Deutsche Warns Two Things Can Derail The Market's "Most Crowded Trades"

Following the worst week for stocks since the US election, the reflation trade that was launched by the Trump election now appears solidly dead, with the dollar and commodities sliding, inflation expectations crumbling, and junk bonds - where investor euphoria had reached dramatic proportions - being hit the hardest. As Bank of America commented last Thursday, "the last few weeks we have seen wobbles in high yield; a full 2 months earlier than we anticipated.

"If All Goes According To Plan": What Global Central Bank Normalization Would Look Like, In One Chart

"If All Goes According To Plan": What Global Central Bank Normalization Would Look Like, In One Chart

AS a result of countless failures by central banks to normalize monetary policy over the past 7 years, the market - especially bonds and rates - has become openly cynical and outright skeptical regarding the possibility of a successful renormalization of policy by global central banks. After all, Japan has been trying to do that for over 30 years and has yet to succeed; the ECB hiked in 2011 resulting in near collapse of the Eurozone.

Goldman Asks "Have We Reached Peak Cash?"

Goldman Asks "Have We Reached Peak Cash?"

In several major economies it's crunch time for the future of cash. Goldman Sachs notes that this is largely policy-driven: tangible steps are being taken to wean economies off cash (e.g. India, Europe); but adds that, at the same time consumer expectations around convenience are rising and enabling technologies have proliferated in the shape of contactless cards, mobile wallets, cryptocurrencies and more.

So, they ask, does the decline in cash payments imply the demise of cash?

Not necessarily.

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