For those wondering what unleashed today's ferocious post-Trump, post-hawkish Fed speech rally, the reason may have nothing to do with optimism in the economy or another inflow of retail funds, and everything to do with incorrect - and bearish - positioning ahead of Trump's speech last night.
In the latest warning from the White House that it is set to unleash trade policy that will be in sharp conflict with generally accepted trade norms, most likely a reference to some form of Border Adjustment Tax, the Trump administration has warned that the U.S. isn't and won't bound by decisions made at the World Trade Organization, in outlining a new trade agenda that "promises to root out unfair practices by foreign countries" and to escalate what are already simmering trade conflicts.
Via Kevin Muir of The Macro Tourist blog,
The easiest way to become a trade-a-saurus is to assume correlations will continue forever and mindlessly fade divergences with the assumption they will recouple. Yet these divergences often offer clues that something might have changed and deserve further investigation.
Over the past couple of decades, ten year US inflation breakeven levels have traded inversely with the US dollar. This should be no surprise and makes sense. Lower US dollar equals more inflation.
While largely considered among the less relevant of Fed indicators, once one gets beyond the traditional "modest to moderate expansion pace" summary of the economy, the Fed's Beige Book release does in fact contain informative, and oftentimes useful anecdotes about the state of the economy as disclosed to the Federal Reserve. And since the latest, February, beige book comes at a time of major economic overhaul, it contained several particularly notable observations.
Below looks at the Bio-Tech ETF XBI since 2012. The chart reflects that over the past 5-years the S&P had done very well, as it is up 70%. Over the same time frame XBI is up 160%, gaining more than 100% more than the broad markets