Business

Update: the March odds continue to surge and are now at 76% and rising.

And as the next chart shows, typically a probability of 70% or higher is sufficient for the Fed to hike. That said, there is a still a long time between now and the FOMC meeting, and we still have to get through the Trump speech.

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The Fed is really doing its best to convince the market that a March rate hike is coming, and it seems to be working.

Just because...

The Record Winning Streak Is Over...

They desperately tried to ramp it but failed

NOTE: Today was the worst day for Small Caps since October

For nine straight days, the buy-the-f##king-dip crowd has been ubiquitous. Day after day the 'checkmark' pattern has confirmed what JPMorgan detailed about retail ETF-flow-driven buying panics into the end of day liquidity.

A double-whammy of bullish news hit WTI crude futures shortly after 1300ET today sending prices soaring. First, The White House denied earlier rumors on changes to the ethanol mandate; and then Reuters confirmed OPEC production cut compliance steady at 94%.