Business

It has been over half a year since we first downgraded the industrial recession to an all-out global depression by using Caterpillar retail sales data, which have been so counterintuitive to what the company's earnings have been reporting that last September we had to ask "What On Earth Is Going On With Caterpillar Sales?."

Today, we must admit that something simply does not compute.

On one hand, CAT stock has soared by over 30% from its 2016 lows....

It seems like only a blurry, distant memory but February 11 - the day the S&P hit its 2016 lows - was just over 4 weeks ago. In the subsequent 4 weeks, the market has unleashed one of the most furious short covering/record corporate buybacl/central bank easing-driven "risk on" rallies ever, and nowehere is this more obvious than in recent inflows into credit markets (the same bond market which just one week ago the ECB made "risk-free" by announcing it would monetize corporate bonds for the first time ever).

WTI crude extends it exuberant ramp to a 3rd day - heading for its 5th weekly gain - the longest since May, climbing above $42, reaching its highest in 3 months amid dollar weakness, falling output, and continued hope of a production freeze (at record levels with a record glut and weakening demand).

Brent is moving in parallel with WTI, testing key resistance level, according to Bloomberg technical strategist.

This morning the WSJ leads with an article that summarizes the prevailing market confusion at the moment, namely that global currencies are soaring, "defying central bankers" despite a flurry of easing around the globe in the past month, all of which have been undone by one Fed dot plot which cut the number of rate hikes forecast by Yellen & Co., from 4 to 2. To wit: "efforts by many of the world’s central banks to weaken their currencies are failing, raising concerns about whether policy makers are losing the ability to wield control over financial markets."

• Dow's Freakish Bounce Makes Investors Whole, Can't Erase Doubts (BBG)
• R.I.P. Dollar Rally as Dovish Fed Spurs Worst Slump Since 2011 (BBG)
• Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers (WSJ)
• Oil hits 2016 high above $42 on production and demand outlook (Reuters)
• The U.S. Is Exporting Its Oil Everywhere (BBG)
• Hillary Clinton’s Allies Launch Plan to Undercut Donald Trump Now (WSJ)
• Sanders calls notion he should quit Democratic race 'absurd' (Reuters)
• Turns Out a 'Lie' Lurked Beneath the Bookends of the BRICS (BBG)