Business

One week ago, as the bear market rally was about to hit its peak post-ECB crescendo, we reported that according to Bank of America data, "The "Smart Money" Is Quietly Getting Out Of Dodge: Sells For A Sixth Straight Week As Buybacks Soar." 

Thanks to dramatic downward revisions (from "resilient" historical data which we pointed out were entirely anomalous at the time and due entirely to seasonal adjustments) retail sales have dropped 0.54% in the last two months - the biggest sequential drop in a year.

While the YoY change rose from +3.0% to +3.1%, it remains below historically-recessionary levels and given the revisions suggests Q1 GDP growth markdowns are on their way with sales down MoM for every cohort from gas stations to furniture.

One weekend ago, in an unexpected episode of Zero Hedge trolling by Jefferies economists, the junk-bond focused mid-tier investment bank sent out a note in which it defended the "recovery" as follows:

• Bank of Japan Holds Fire on Stimulus, Negative Rate Unchanged (BBG)
• Donald Trump Aims for a Knockout in Tuesday Primaries (WSJ)
• Global Stocks Fall on Commodities Decline, Ahead of Fed Meeting (WSJ)
• Oil prices fall as clouds gather over supply picture (Reuters)
• Many Shale Companies Are Unable to Ramp Up Oil Output (WSJ)
• Valeant Slashes Guidance, stock crashes (WSJ)
• Fed to sit tight on rates at March meet, hint at hikes to come (Reuters)
• Big Money Gets On China's Lifeboats (BBG)

Was that it for the great February/March bear market rally?