Business

"They don't quite trust the higher spot prices yet," warned one trader as the changing shape of the Brent forward curve suggests oil producers have been locking in recent gains across the crude futures price structure.

As Reuters reports, producers - who have been hoping that a 20-month price rout has bottomed out - do not have full confidence that a recovery is underway, as seen by the shape of the Brent forward curve out to the year 2020.

Well, the people wanted a "bazooka-sized" surprise from Draghi, and they got it.

For Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, there is - to put it mildly - a lot riding on what the ECB announces in just about 10 mintues. Recall it was DB just a month ago when, with its stock plunging to near record lows, the bank issued an appeal to the ECB: "Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us."   As it later turned out, all Deutsche did not want is more negative rates, and was perfectly ok with more QE or a two-tier system, but more NIRP by Draghi seems unavoidable. Which is why as Reid asks, "is today's the most challenging central bank meeting in living memory."

• Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
• Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
• Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
• Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
• Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)
• Abe pledges to boost tourism in tsunami-ravaged region, maintains nuclear policy stance  (Xinhua)
• Amazon Finds Air Freight Partner (WSJ)

2016 has been the year that investors turned bearish on central banks.

Something snapped in the market’s collective psyche when Kuroda went NIRP and things haven’t been the same since. It’s as though everyone suddenly realized just how utterly insane this global monetary experiment has become.