Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,
Today we engage in a simple thought experiment: what 3 pieces of information would you need to confidently call the 2016 end-of-year level on the S&P 500?
A brief survey of senior Convergex traders yielded this list: year-end worldwide central bank rates, Chinese GDP growth in 2016, actual 2016 US corporate earnings, the winner of the U.S. presidential race, and the pace of increases in the Fed Funds rate for the year.
One week ago, when looking at the latest BofA client flow trend monitor, we noticed something strange: despite the S&P's surge higher due to either a record short squeeze or because it is merely another bear market rally, the smart money was selling.
Even as US crude oil inventories just hit a fresh record high for another week, both in Cushing and across all other regions, a more curious accumulation of excess oil inventory has emerged: according to the IEA, global oil production exceeded consumption by just over 1 billion barrels in 2014 and 2015.
Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,
Nine firefighters were injured when an apparent natural gas explosion destroyed two buildings in a Seattle neighborhood early on Wednesday morning. Two commercial buildings were leveled after the gas explosion south of Greenwood Avenue North at85th Avenue North. The cause of the blast, which was heard miles away from the site, is under investigation. RT reports: The explosion occurred around 1:45am Pacific time on Wednesday morning in the northern Greenwood neighborhood after fire crews responded to calls of a natural gas leak made 40 minutes earlier.