Business

Driven by a collapse in 'hope' - future expectations dropped to 78.9, the lowest since Feb 2014 - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence headline dropped from 97.8 to 92.2, the weakest since July 2015. Amid the so-called best jobs market in decades, near-record low gas prices, and a resurging stock market, it appears the 'everyday American' is not amused as all the 'increases in animal spirits' since QE3 have evaporated.

Consumer Confidence is hovering near 3 year lows... erasing all the gains since QE3 was initiated

Back on January 14, we noted that JPMorgan did something they haven’t done in 22 quarters: the bank increased its loan loss provisions.

The "reserve build of ~$100mm [is] driven by $60mm in Oil & Gas and $26mm in Metals & Mining within the commercial banking group,” the bank said.

Despite OPEC's El-Badri proclaiming that Iran and iraq "didn't refuse to join the production freeze," oil prices are tumbling this morning on comments from Iran's oil minister that OPEC's call for a production freeze is "ridiculous."

Proposal by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Qatar for oil producers to freeze output puts “unrealistic demands” on Iran, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh says, according to ministry’s news agency Shana.

 

*IRAN CALLS SAUDI-RUSSIAN OUTPUT FREEZE PLAN `RIDICULOUS': SHANA

After four months of hope-strewn expectation beats, Case-Shiller's home price index missed expectations with MoM growth slowing from 0.96% to 0.8% (and YoY from 5.83% to 5.74%). This is the first inflection in the resurrection of home-price acceleration since June, and we are sure will be blamed on the weather and the stock market. Perhaps most notably Miami and new York saw prices drop MoM as the smoking gun canaries in the coalmine of real estate speculation remain well worth watching.

Did the cycle just turn again?

Below is the latest KBRA research report on blockchain, the enabling technology behind the bitcoin payments system.  After spending several months talking to participants and organizations focused on this new approach to transferring value between individuals, we find no viable commercial business model in sight.  There are however, swarms of hungry consultants, aging derivatives mavens and private equity firms seeking to profit from the hype surrounding bitcoin and the blockchain technology.