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Frontrunning: February 19

  • Stocks knocked back as oil rally falters (Reuters)
  • Still no deal for Britain on EU reforms after all-night talks (Reuters)
  • Oil Falls Near $30 as Rising U.S. Crude Stockpiles Expand Glut (BBG)
  • PBOC to Raise Reserve Ratios for Banks That Don't Meet Criteria (BBG)
  • China’s Top Securities Regulator to Step Down (WSJ)
  • Excessive loosening of China's monetary policy would increase yuan pressure (Reuters)
  • Tough road for Venezuela after dire data, inadequate measures (Reuters)

Deere In Headlights After Guidance Cut: Sees 10% Sales Drop Due To "Downturn In Global Farm Economy"

It is not just Caterpillar that continues to post horrendous numbers, and has now recorded 38 consecutive months of declining Y/Y sales, double the length of the contraction of the great financial crisis. Moments ago heavy farm equipment maker Deere likewise shocked its investors with a round of terrible numbers, when at first it reported a revenue and EPS beat, announced it had earned $0.80 EPS in Q4, above the $0.71 estimate, on $5.53BN in revenue, well above the $4.90BN expected, however it was the unprecedented drop in the forecast that was the punchline.

Futures Sink To Session Lows, Europe Slides Following Chinese RRR Hike Confusion, Brexit Concerns

Not even this morning's mandatory European open ramp has been able to push US equity futures higher, and as a result moments ago the E-mini hit session lows on rising concerns about Brexit as talks drag on in Brussles, but mostly as a result of overnight confusion about China's loan explosion and whether the PBOC has lost control over its maniacally-lending banks.

What’s Ailing the Largest Global Banks?

Below is the latest KBRA comment on the travails affecting the largest global banks. Global capital levels are at the highest levels ever, but investor confidence in the big banks is at an all time low. Over a century ago, J.P. Morgan told a congressional hearing that commercial credit is not based upon money or property, but character. You could substitute the word confidence for character in the exchange between Morgan and Samuel Untermyer.

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