Business

While we have generally disagreed with Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker flipflopping on stocks some two years ago, or just as the market was topping out, we can't find fault with his latest note released today in which he openly admits that "our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately. As my 90-year old Latin teacher used to tell the class in 1985, “son, you are in left field, without a glove, with the sun in your eyes."

Producer Prices (ex food and energy) jumped 0.4% MoM - the biggest rise since Oct 2014 (and dramatically hotter than the 0.1% rise expected). Rubbing salt into Fed mandate wounds still further is last month's print was also revised higher and YoY (+0.6%) is the highest since Sep 2015. Across the range of PPI data, all items came hotter than expected in January (despite a 5% drop in Energy) with Food rising most.

Inflation hotting up...

One of the most critical lines to watch is the 12-month moving average for stocks.

Historically this line has served well as a proxy for determining if stocks were in a bull or bear market. When stocks rallied above this line, they were in a bull market. When they fell below this line, they were in a bear market.

As you can see, this line was a great metric for targeting when to enter or exit the markets.

Submitted by Michael McDonald of OilPrice

Downturn Now Hitting The Refining Sector

As all energy investors know, it has been a terrible year for oil and natural gas companies. Many stocks are down half or more from their 52-week highs. Yet amidst the carnage, one energy group has held up very well – refiners.

Back in October, Quebec put taxpayers on the hook for a $1 billion bailout of planemaker Bombardier, which was having one hell of a hard time creating a buzz around its CSeries commercial jet program.

Bombardier has been around for nearly 8 decades and employees more than 40,000 people in the province. The company’s role in the provincial economy is “incalculable,” Quebec’s Economy Minister Jacques Daoust said last year. “How can I let them go?” he asked.