Ask the Fed what market indicators are implying about recession odds and it will tell you: about 4%. There is one problem with the Fed's model: as Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam shows, it is wrong due to the Fed's own intervention in the yield curve.
While Chicago's business outlook managed a miraculous bounce in January, New York did not. ISM New York printed 54.6, plunging most since August from December's 62.0 level. The extremely noisy time series continues to swing, this time lower, as the underlying components deteriorate with Revenues collapsing to at least 3 year lows.
Headline data tumbled...
But Revenues crashed to the lowest since at least 2013...
Since The Fed hiked rates mid-December, 10Y Treasury yields have plunged around 40bps with today's 6bps drop taking out 1.9015% Black Monday lows, all the way back to April 2015 lows.
1.8965% lows today is the lowest since April 21st 2015.
Policy-Error?
It may not be quite as dramatic as halting a dividend for already profusely sweating investors, but when it comes to the impact on the stock price, buybacks traditionally pack far more punch.
Biometric banking is coming to ATMs, testing is already underway. The new ATM concept would allow people to unlock their bank accounts with an eye scan. However, the technology that will do away with the need for cards in favor of iris scanners is being developed by a company accused of election fraud Activist Post reports: The video below makes the same plea to embrace new technology that is always heard when discussing a solution to the very real threat of identity theft. However, it is worth noting that in this case the company which is developing the solution is Diebold.