Business

There has been some confusion overnight whether Goldman, in a note released overnight, is calling for a new "bull market" in oil and commodities in general.

Goldman did not call for a bull market. This is what it did say.

While Goldman has long been one of the bigger bears on commodities in general, and oil in particular, earlier today, the firm's energy analyst Jefferie Currie released a note that offered a faint glimmer of hope for oil bulls. This is what he said:

BofAML's Michael Hartnett says that clients are no longer in "denial" about recession/bear market risks; but clients not yet willing to "accept" we are already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market.

How about now?

As Hartnett warns, if it walks like a bear, and growls like a bear... 

US 5y5y forward breakeven (USGG5Y5Y) collapses to lowest level since Mar’09.

Just as Wholesale inventories-to-sales ratios flash recessionary signals so Business inventrories-to-sales point to US heading towards an inventory-dump recession. At 1.38x, the ratio is the highest since the last crisis as both sales and inventories fell Mom but year-over-year, sales tumble (-1.4% YoY) and inventories rise (1.6% YoY).

And the breakdown shows the drop in sales and inventories (but no reduction in the overhang)

“Buy Gold” As Equities “Rolling Over” – UBS

by Mark O'Byrne

UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016?, it is time to “buy gold”.

Exchange says Nasdaq/Finra TRF -- a service dark pools and other off-exchange venues use to report stock trades -- is experiencing technical issue.

“Nasdaq is working on failing over affected connections and customers may see further disconnections as this process takes place,” Nasdaq says in notice at 9:32am.

 

NOTE: Systems like Nasdaq TRF knit together U.S. stock trading, which is spread across dozens of markets. Though trades could happen even without the TRF, they might not get recorded publicly.