It was just two weeks ago when we highlighted a Morgan Stanley note which showed that US trucking has not been this bad since 2009. That revelation came on the heels of an abysmal November for Class 8 sales.
Trucking, apparently, is just another casualty of slumping trade, falling commodity prices, and mediocre, double-adjusted economic “growth.”
On Friday we get the latest sign that trade is grinding to a halt.
There has been some confusion overnight whether Goldman, in a note released overnight, is calling for a new "bull market" in oil and commodities in general.
Goldman did not call for a bull market. This is what it did say.
While Goldman has long been one of the bigger bears on commodities in general, and oil in particular, earlier today, the firm's energy analyst Jefferie Currie released a note that offered a faint glimmer of hope for oil bulls. This is what he said:
BofAML's Michael Hartnett says that clients are no longer in "denial" about recession/bear market risks; but clients not yet willing to "accept" we are already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market.
How about now?
As Hartnett warns, if it walks like a bear, and growls like a bear...
US 5y5y forward breakeven (USGG5Y5Y) collapses to lowest level since Mar’09.
Just as Wholesale inventories-to-sales ratios flash recessionary signals so Business inventrories-to-sales point to US heading towards an inventory-dump recession. At 1.38x, the ratio is the highest since the last crisis as both sales and inventories fell Mom but year-over-year, sales tumble (-1.4% YoY) and inventories rise (1.6% YoY).
And the breakdown shows the drop in sales and inventories (but no reduction in the overhang)
“Buy Gold” As Equities “Rolling Over” – UBS
by Mark O'Byrne
UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016?, it is time to “buy gold”.