Business

This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

Worst ever start to a year...

And worst week for equity and credit markets in recent history...

Now that the Fed has commenced its rate hike cycle, the jobs report suddenly takes on far less significance because only a massively "outlier" print will have an impact on Fed thinking, thinking which so far appears undented despite a raging manufacturing recession across the US. This means that the December jobs could be the "most important ever" only in retrospect, with either a huge miss (think < 100,000) or huge beat (> 275,000) having a material impact at a time when algos are much more focused on China scrambling to prevent its economy - and market - crashing, hard.

• U.S. jobs market seen fairly healthy despite slowing economy (Reuters)
• China State Funds Said to Buy More Shares After Market Rout (BBG)
• Global Stocks Gain Some Respite (WSJ)
• U.S. Jobs Data Take on Added Importance With Markets in Turmoil (BBG)
• GOP Health Plans Are Works in Progress (WSJ)
• For economy czar of crisis-hit Venezuela, inflation 'does not exist' (Reuters)
• Germany Says Asylum Seekers Among Suspects in Cologne New Year’s Eve Assaults (WSJ)

As quick primer on China: the more something is "liberalized", the worse it is for local - and global - risk assets since all risk "assets" in China are so grotesquely manipulated, the resulting price discovery is always violent and spills over to the rest of the world as 2016 has so far demonstrated; alternatively, the more the government intervenes to stabilize any given asset, the better it is for local - and global - risk assets, as it means the distortion in price levels and capital allocation will continue at least a little longer, i.e., the proverbial can ki

When we previewed yesterday's Chinese trading session, which far more important to the US market than today's Nonfarm payrolls report (Exp. +200K, 4.9% Unemployment rate), we said to "keep an eye on the Yuan fixing around 8 pm: if the USDCNY sees another substantial jump (i.e., Yuan decline) from last night's 5 year low rate of 6.5646, this could suggest further turbulence and as all self-fulfilling prophecies go, unleash another pukefest which not even the circuit breaker adjustment will fix.