There’s a lot to be worried about going into 2016 both in terms of financial markets and in terms of geopolitical concerns.
We outlined the risks that pervade capital markets earlier today on the way to noting that the sellside penguin brigade seems to believe that somehow, nothing can derail the market’s momentum going forward. Here are the potential landmines investors face going into the new year:
Submitted by Roger Thomas via Valuewalk.com,
If you’re an observer of the political aspect of the Fed policy, you’re likely aware that central bankers like to stay out of the spotlight. Spotlight creates political pressure, something Fed technocrats publicly dislike.
With this thought in mind, here’s a look at the federal funds rate overlaid with politics.
After several months of significant reserves liquidations by China (specifically by its Euroclear proxy "Belgium") which tracked the drop in China's reserves practically tick for tick, in October Chinese+Belgian holdings were virtually unchanged according to the latest TIC data, as China moderated its defense of its sliding currency. Of course, putting this in context still shows a China which has sold $600 billion of US paper since 2014, as this website was first to note over half a year ago.
Following last week's huge draw, total crude inventories were expected to drop 1 million barrels this week driven by expectations that refinery utilization rose last week. When API reported a hugely surprising 2.3 million barrel build, crude prices, which had drifted off highs after NYMEX close, dropped further as disappointment set in, back under $37.
A majorly unexpected build...
Ansd crude prices slumped back under $27...
Charts: Bloomberg
“The Fed is in total denial. It hasn't learned the lessons of what it put the world through a decade ago,” Stephen Roach said, back in January.
“I just go back to 2005 and 2006 where the Fed was so incremental in normalizing rates during a time of enormous froth in property markets, equity markets, credit markets and ultimately that led to huge distortions in the real economy and finally when the bubbles popped, the whole house of cards came down,” he added.