Business

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

The silence of the bears is deafening. And who can blame them?

A funny thing happened as the so-called experts were looking for signs of retail euphoria (and repeatedly were unable to find it): everyone got all-in equities... and not just retail investors and US households, but mutual funds, hedge funds, pensions, systematic, and sovereign wealth funds.

As JPMorgan calculated when looking at the equity positioning of the main types of investors, "allocations are near historical highs, not leaving much room for further increases." How historic?

"How close are we to the market top?"

The dollar index had been falling in early trading - extending its freefall from the Nov 1st Fed statement - but legged down on the dovish minutes to the lowest in 5 weeks. Gold is extending its gains, above key technical levels and while the curve is steady, long-end bond yields are sliding modestly.

Today is the worst day for the dollar index since Sept 7th...

And Gold has erased its plunge from Monday...

Early weakness in bonds has been entirely reversed...

With a dumping dollar and collapsing yield curve since November's FOMC, all eyes are on the Minutes for any signals of The Fed hawkishly ignoring inflation concerns but instead a few Fed officials opposed near-term hikes (on the basis of weak inflation). Furthermore, several Fed officials warned of the potential for bubbles, "in light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial imbalances."