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With a dumping dollar and collapsing yield curve since November's FOMC, all eyes are on the Minutes for any signals of The Fed hawkishly ignoring inflation concerns but instead a few Fed officials opposed near-term hikes (on the basis of weak inflation). Furthermore, several Fed officials warned of the potential for bubbles, "in light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial imbalances."

For the second week in the last 3, US oil rig counts rose dramatically (up 9 to 747).

The 18 rig jump is the biggest since June, to the highest level in almost 2 months, as the rebound in oil prices begins to draw out more production...

The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used to describe the US economy, which is now seen to be expanding at a “solid rate” (versus “rising moderately” before), despite the disruptions caused by the recent hurricanes.

Authored by Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital,

“Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else.” – Leonardo da Vinci

A Dangerous Market Structure is More Worrying than Expensive Asset Valuations and Record Debt Levels

With WTI at its highest since July 2015, vol at 8mo lows, and the front-end flipped into backwardation for the first time since Nov 2014, it appears a lot of hope is priced into continued equlilibration (and OPEC). Last night's API (crude draw) provided some more confirmation but this morning's DOE data disappointed with a smaller than expected crude draw, and production rose once again to a new record high.