Business

On Friday the Department of Commerce will report August retail sales, a material report which all else equal, may influence whether the Fed proceeds with its plans to unveil balance sheet tapering in its upcoming FOMC meeting. However, as we discussed last week, the report, together with virtually all other high frequency economic reports, will be materially distorted by the destructive aftermath of hurricane Harvey (Irma's impact will be felt in the September retail report).

Complex systems are all around us.

By one definition, a complex system is any system that features a large number of interacting components (agents, processes, etc.) whose aggregate activity is nonlinear (not derivable from the summations of the activity of individual components) and typically exhibits hierarchical self-organization under selective pressures.

Two of 2017’s major investing themes thus far are the return of Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) and the prolonged weakness in the U.S. Dollar (CURRENCY:USD).

Year-to-date, Gold is up 15.72% while the U.S. Dollar is down 9.57%.  This follows a multi-year decline in Gold and a multi-year rise in the Dollar.

For the first time since August 10th, WTI crude is trading back above $50 (following the biggest crude inventory build in 6 months and a rebound in production last week).

The gains seem driven by refinery restarts and increased IEA/OPEC demand forecasts, and improved OPEC production cut compliance. This move also follows China's lowest crude output since 2009 (amid dismal economic data).

The good news (for now) is that RBOB prices are continuing to slide as refiners and pipelines come back on line after Harvey.

After disappointing (for The Fed's inflationistas) producer prices growth yesterday, consumer prices jumped 0.4% MoM in August - the biggest spike since January. Gains were driven by soaring energy costs (offset by a big decline in vehicle prices).

Year over Year, CPI remains below The Fed's mandat at +1.9% but that is hotter than expected and the highest since April..

As the breakdown shows, the gains were largely driven by rising energy and shelter costs (and note that vehicle prices are tumbling)