Business

Authored by Saxo Bank's head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik via TradingFloor.com,

A Venezuelan default is only a matter of time.

While debt servicing has been a government priority, declining external liquidity and a deteriorating domestic situation (three-digit hyperinflation, shortages, and a political crisis between the government and the National Assembly) make it a daunting task.

By 2020, the country must repay 30% of the external debt due to expire in the next 23 years.

Having slammed bitcoin earlier in the day during a Barclays financial conference, calling it a "fraud" which is "worse than tulip bulbs, it won't end well" and that any JPMorgan "trader trading bitcoin" will be "fired for being stupid", the JPM CEO doubled down later in the day during an interview on CNBC's Delivering Alpha conference, saying bitcoin "is just not a real thing, eventually it will be closed."

We've frequently argued that public pension underfundings are perhaps the greatest threat to the long-term economic outlook of the United States, if not the globe.  With aggregate underfunding levels of $5-$8 trillion, depending on what discount rate your local politicians decide to pull out of thin air, the forthcoming pension crisis will be too large for even the very generous American taxpayer to cover.

WTI/RBOB gained on the day after OPEC headlines but with disruptions still looming over much of the refining capacity in the Gulf Coast, today's API data, showing the trend of Gasoline draw (the biggest ever) and Crude build continues, sparked further gains.

API

Call it the "bearish billionaire" curse. One month ago, MarketWatch penned "7 billionaires who are worried about a stock-market correction" which listed Carl Icahn, David Tepper, Howard Marks, George Soros, Jeff Gundlach, Warren Buffett and Eliot Singer as some of the world's wealthiest people who are losing sleep over the S&P trading at all time highs.