In a surprise for traders - and the Fed - moments ago the BEA reported that after its first revision of Q2 GDP (a quarter which ended two months ago), the initial estimate of 2.6% was revised to 3.0%, beating expectations of a 2.7% print, and the highest annualized growth rate since Q1 2015. The annualized Q2 GDP was more than double the first quarter number which as a reminder printed at 1.2%
Front-month (Sept) RBOB Gasoline futures traded as high as $1.90 this morning - the highest since July 2015 - as more refiners (including America's largest) shutdown output due to Harvey's impact.
As Bloomberg reports, America’s largest oil refinery is joining the spate of shut-downs in the face of Tropical Storm Harvey’s apocalyptic rains, potentially reducing U.S. fuel-making capacity to the lowest level since 2008.
ADP reports the US economy added 237,000 jobs in August, notably more than the expected 185k. This is the biggest addition since March, and follows upward revisions for July. While Services dominated (adding 204k), Goods-producing jobs rose 33k (with manufacturing adding 16k).
Medium- and Large-seized firms added the most jobs in August.
Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs in August....
Trade/Transportantion and Leisyure added the most jobs in August...
S&P futures are higher in early Wednesday trading, alongside Asian stocks and European bourses, both solidly in the green as the EURUSD drifts below the 1.20 "redline" while the dollar rebounds off a two and a half year low following the US "measured" response to North Korea’s missile test, which soothed jittery investors who now turn their focus to US economic data. Equity indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea also rose while 10Y US Treasuries are steady before the release of ADP employment and GDP data, both of which are expected to show an increase.
"Credit risk is ricocheting back as a legitimate concern after years of hibernation..." warns David Hendler, founder and principal at Viola Risk Advisors, who considers recent share sales by executives at the big retail banks, in particular, to be smart, as consumer portfolios are showing signs of strain.
Wall Street analysts have been urging investors all year to buy stocks in the big US banks, but, as The FT reports, Wall Street itself is not listening.