Having in recent weeks boosted his estimate for government shutdown odds to even, or 50%, in a note overnight from Goldman's Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economists writes that due to the human tragedy from Hurricane Harvey, the odds of a shutdown have been again reduced, back to Goldman's original estimate of 33%.
Authored by James Rickards
Last week featured two unusual stories on gold - one strange and the other truly weird. These stories explain why gold is not just money but is the most politicized form of money.
They show that while politicians publicly disparage gold, they quietly pay close attention to it.
The first strange gold story involves Germany…
The Deutsche Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, announced that it had completed the repatriation of gold to Frankfurt from foreign vaults.
In a surprise for traders - and the Fed - moments ago the BEA reported that after its first revision of Q2 GDP (a quarter which ended two months ago), the initial estimate of 2.6% was revised to 3.0%, beating expectations of a 2.7% print, and the highest annualized growth rate since Q1 2015. The annualized Q2 GDP was more than double the first quarter number which as a reminder printed at 1.2%
Front-month (Sept) RBOB Gasoline futures traded as high as $1.90 this morning - the highest since July 2015 - as more refiners (including America's largest) shutdown output due to Harvey's impact.
As Bloomberg reports, America’s largest oil refinery is joining the spate of shut-downs in the face of Tropical Storm Harvey’s apocalyptic rains, potentially reducing U.S. fuel-making capacity to the lowest level since 2008.
ADP reports the US economy added 237,000 jobs in August, notably more than the expected 185k. This is the biggest addition since March, and follows upward revisions for July. While Services dominated (adding 204k), Goods-producing jobs rose 33k (with manufacturing adding 16k).
Medium- and Large-seized firms added the most jobs in August.
Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs in August....
Trade/Transportantion and Leisyure added the most jobs in August...