With no expectations of a rate-hike this week, and traders rapidly giving up on The Fed's dream of a steadily higher rate trajectory, a funny thing happened in the markets...
In the eyes of The Fed, their monetary policy has not been this 'tight' since October 2008.
However, in the eyes of the market, financial conditions just hit their easiest level in history (easier than the September 2005 previous record easiness level).
The recent trend of inventory draws (in crude and products) has supported higher Brent and WTI prices (the latter testing $48 today) despite surging production. API reported more of the same with a much larger than expected draw (-10.2mm vs -3mm exp), sending WTI above $48. All was not perfect in the report however as gasoline saw an unexpected build.
API
Speaking earlier on Monday, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said that despite growing market concerns, the ECB "sees no need to set a timetable to end bond buying" adding that "the question is not when but how to continue. That will depend on the economic projections for 2018, which we will have in the fall [...] It’s not about an abrupt halt, but about registering that we are no longer confronted by such an acute crisis as we were when we implemented the measures. I consider it wise to step off the gas slowly."
Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,
Many everyday citizens assume powerful global financial elites operate behind closed doors in secret conclaves, like the scene of a Spectre board meeting in the recent James Bond film.
Actually, the opposite is true. Most of what the power elite does is hidden in plain sight in speeches, seminars, webcasts and technical papers. These are readily available from institutional websites and media channels.
With the FOMC members currently huddling deep inside the bowels of the Marriner Eccles building, perhaps scheming how to spook markets by announcing a surprise rate hike tomorrow, one would have assumed demand for 2 Year paper in today's auction would be less than stellar. One would be wrong, because moments ago the Treasury sold $26bn in 2 year paper to what was clearly an overabundance of demand: the high yield of 1.395% stopped through the When Issued 1.401% by 0.6 bps, and was the highest yield going back to October 2008.