Business

Over the past several years we have repeatedly stated that despite protests to the contrary, the single biggest factor explaining the underperformance of the active community in general, and hedge funds in particular, has been the ubiquitous influence of the Fed and other central banks over the capital markets, coupled with the prevasive presence of quantitative strategies, HFTs, algo trading and more recently, a surge in price-indescriminate purchases by passive, ETF managers.

The big news this week was the flash crash in silver late on 6 July. We will publish a separate forensic analysis of this, as there is a lot to say and see.

The Fed keeps ringing bells to signal the top, but the markets aren’t listening.

Janet Yellen is set to present the Fed’s Monetary Report to Congress this week. Her remarks have already been posted online.

The results aren’t pretty.

Valuation pressures across a range of assets and several indicators of investor risk appetite have increased further since mid-February...

In his overnight note, SocGen's FX strategist Kit Juckes appropriates asks which is the right metaphor for the state of the US economy – Goldilocks or Groundhog Day? He points to employment growth of 1.55%, unemployment 4.4%, offset by weak wage growth of 2.46%.

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.