Business

By Bill Blain of Mint Partners, Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 28th 2017

Uncertainty, confusion, a Tech-sell off.. but are things as bad as they seem?

“Now I got mortgages and homes, I got stiffness in my bones, ain’t no beauty queens in this locality…”

As we reach towards month end and the half-year, markets do not feel like they are in particularly solid territory. Lots of uncertainty out there. Relax. Never as bad as you think, but it helps to understand what is really going on. Noise, and lots of it.  

• Global Bonds Sell Off, Sparking Fears of Further ‘Taper Tantrum’ (WSJ)
• Facing revolt on healthcare, GOP senators delay vote (Reuters)
• Global businesses dig out from latest cyber attack (Reuters)
• Companies Work to Contain Fallout From Cyberattack (WSJ)
• Cyber attack hits property arm of French bank BNP Paribas (Reuters)
• Obama Choked on Russia Long Before the 2016 Election (BBG)
• The EU May Need to Introduce a Bloc-Wide Tax After Brexit (BBG)
• iPhone Anniversary Edition Gives Analysts Pre-Party Jitters (WSJ)

Yesterday morning we discussed the sudden crashes amid 17 small cap Hong Kong firms, which collectively lost over $6 billion in market cap, on what we dubbed was a marketwide margin call, as confidence in the entire sector vaporized instantly, sending the small cap Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) plunging by over 9%, with some stocks plunging over 90%. Quoted by Bloomberg, Francis Lun, the CEO of HK's Geo Securities said “we’re seeing a domino effect; all the companies in the same network got cut.

U.S. index futures point to a slightly higher open, as markets in both Europe and Asian fall.The EUR surges to one year highs as markets continue to reverberate from Draghi's hawkish comments while yields rose around the globe following similar hawkish comments from Fed speakers on Tuesday.

Throughout the first half of the year, as stocks kept grinding ever higher and Goldman issued one after another bearish equity strategy note, the bank's chief equity analyst David Kostin stubbornly kept Goldman's S&P price target at 2,300. Now, "unexpectedly" with stocks finally cracking with some violent moves in the tech sector after repeated warnings by top Fed bankers that stock "valuations are too rich", moments ago Kostin just raised Goldman's year end price target from 2,300 to 2,400. "reflecting a 1% decline over the next six months."