The Bank of Canada is stuck between the rock of a housing bubble (textbook-based trickle-down confidence-inspiration) and a hard place of a housing bubble (total lack of affordability) as it proclaimed this week that it may withdraw stimulus because, paraphrasing, everything was awesome. Well, today's existing home sales collapse may change that tune quickly...
Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,
After many months of fighting all the naysayers predicting the next big stock market crash, I am finally succumbing to the seductive story of the dark side, and getting negative on equities. I am often early, so maybe this means the rally is about to accelerate to the upside. I am willing to take that chance. It would be just like me to pound the table on the long side, and then abandon the trade right before it goes parabolic.
The pound sharply reversed overnight losses (the result of weaker than expected UK retail sales 0.90% Y/Y, exp. 1.7%) rising as much as 0.3% to 1.2794 after the BOE announced it kept rates at 0.25%, however the hawkish surprise was the 5-3 vote, far closer than the 7-1 expected, as two more MPC members , Saunders and McCafferty joined Forbes in calling for a rate hike on the back of rising inflation concerns.
Is it going to be another May 17, when US stocks tumbled as concerns of a Trump impeachment over obstruction of justice and impeachment surged ahead of Comey's tetimony?
Overnight, S&P500 futures accelerated their decline following yesterday's WaPo report that Special Counsel Mueller has launched a probe into potential obstruction of justice by Trump...
One of the lingering questions to emerge from yesterday's FOMC meeting, after Yellen's "first dovish, then hawkish" statement rocked the dollar and markets, is whether the Fed chair has some more accurate way of forecasting inflation than the rest of market to justify her optimistic outlook, and to explain why the divergence between the Fed's dot plot and the market's own FF forecasts is nearly 100%. And, if not, is the Fed about to make another major policy mistake by forecasting a far stronger economy than is possible, culminating with a recession.