China

On Tuesday, we brought you Bloomberg’s top 10 “worst case scenarios” for 2016. The list, compiled by polling "dozens of former and current diplomats, geopolitical strategists, security consultants, and economists" included everything from devastating cyber attacks by Iranian and Russian hackers to a military coup in China. 

They even threw in a Trump victory in the national elections for good measure.

Well, liftoff has officially begun. 

Assuming 25 bps doesn't tip EM into crisis and/or trigger some kind of dramatic, unforeseen meltdown elsewhere, the Fed is about to embark on the first rate hike cycle in over a decade. 

Of course the hike itself isn't what's interesting - virtually no one thought the Fed would fold again, even as China did its best to create a bit of pre-Yellen drama by stirring up the deval fears with a nod to a new trade-weighted index for the yuan.