The spread between the 30Y US Treasury yield and 2Y has plunged by 7.5bps this morning (as 2Y sells off and 30Y rallies post-Draghi) to 175bps. This is the flattest curve since Dec 2008 lows (at 172bps) which can only bode poorly for financials...
30Y bonds are bid (juicy yield compared to Europe) and 2Y yields are surging (room for a Fed rate hike)...
Still buying the Dimon Bottom?
Charts: Bloomberg
For Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, there is - to put it mildly - a lot riding on what the ECB announces in just about 10 mintues. Recall it was DB just a month ago when, with its stock plunging to near record lows, the bank issued an appeal to the ECB: "Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us." As it later turned out, all Deutsche did not want is more negative rates, and was perfectly ok with more QE or a two-tier system, but more NIRP by Draghi seems unavoidable. Which is why as Reid asks, "is today's the most challenging central bank meeting in living memory."
2016 has been the year that investors turned bearish on central banks.
Something snapped in the market’s collective psyche when Kuroda went NIRP and things haven’t been the same since. It’s as though everyone suddenly realized just how utterly insane this global monetary experiment has become.
Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are mostly higher this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.
In what may be the biggest news of the day, and certainly with far greater implications than whatever Mario Draghi will announce in a few hours when we will again witness the ECB doing not "whatever it takes" but "whatever it can do", moments ago Reuters reported that China is preparing for an unprecedented overhaul in how it treats it trillions in non-performing loans.