Europe

Donald Trump says he’s “tough on immigration,” and maybe he is.

But not like Hungarian PM Viktor Orban.

Last September, when things began to get out of hand on the Balkan route north to Germany, Orban decided to build a 100 mile long, 12-foot high razor wire migrant-be-gone fence on his country’s border with Serbia. Some refugees didn’t like that and decided to test Orban’s resolve. Here’s what happened next:

And here’s a chart which shows the rather dramatic effect Orban’s crackdown had on migrant flows into Hungary:

Over the weekend, we presented what according to Bank of America was perhaps the last remaining bullish catalyst for a big market move higher when Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said that "we remain sellers into strength in coming weeks/months of risk assets at least until a coordinated and aggressive global policy response (e.g. Shanghai Accord) begins to reverse the deterioration in global profit expectations and credit conditions."

Three weeks into January things were looking rather grim.

Plunging crude, jitters about the ongoing (and increasingly unpredictable) yuan devaluation, and spillovers to global risk assets stemming from an ill-fated attempt by Chinese regulators to implement a stock market circuit breaker got US equities off to one of their worst Januarys in history.

• Shares fall with oil prices, yen in demand (Reuters)
• Trump's third straight win has rivals looking for answers (Reuters)
• How Marco Rubio Blunted Ted Cruz—and Boosted Donald Trump (BBG)
• Donald Trump Seals GOP Front-Runner Status With Nevada Win (WSJ)
• Fischer says no Fed plan to move to negative interest rates (Reuters)
• Lew Says Don't Expect `Crisis Response' From Group of 20 Meeting (BBG)
• Solid support for Apple in iPhone encryption fight (Reuters)
• This Year’s Biggest IPO Is a Blank Check for the Oil Business (WSJ)

While the prevailing dour (or perhaps sour) overnight mood was a continuation of the weak oil theme which started yesterday after Iran said the production freeze proposed by Saudi and Russia as "ridiculous", and Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi said that Saudi won't cut supply and that high-cost producers need to either "lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” (ideally the latter), risk sentiment was further dented when BOJ Governor Kuroda says he won’t target FX rates or stocks, which is clearly nonsense, and further spooked Japanese asset prices (Nikkei -0.85), while s