Senate

Judging by the market's euphoric reaction this morning, the Senate's passage of the tax bill on Saturday is nothing but good news for stocks (well, maybe not the Nasdaq). And indeed, banks - whose effective tax rate is around 30% - and other tax-sensitive companies are surging, with banks are outperforming and  sending the KBW bank index up as much as 2.8% to a fresh decade-high (BofA up as much as 3.9% to the highest since Oct. 2008; JPM up as much as 3.4% to record high; Citigroup up as much as 2.7% to highest since Dec. 2008).

The dollar jumped the most in two weeks, pushing Treasury yields as much as 6bps higher (before easing back) with US equity indexes primed for a another record-setting day after Senate Republicans approved a reduction in the corporate tax rate as part of a sweeping overhaul, giving a boost to President Donald Trump’s stimulus plans. The key market catalyst was the US Senate passing the tax reform bill through a vote of 51 vs 49 just before 2am on Saturday morning.

To the delight of Donald Trump, just before 2am on Saturday morning the Senate passed the Republican Tax bill in a 51-49 vote, and with tax reform legislation now passing both chambers of Congress it looks very likely to become law by year-end, probably within the next two weeks according to Goldman Sachs which now ascribes a 90% probability of the legislation becomes law by year end.

Shortly before 2am on Saturday, the Senate passed "the most sweeping rewrite of the U.S. tax code in three decades, slashing the corporate tax rate and providing temporary tax-rate cuts for most Americans" handing Republicans a badly needed legislative and political victory. Senators voted across party lines in a 51-49 vote, ending days of debate and "hand wringing" as leadership worked frantically behind the scenes to win over holdouts and get the proposal in line with the chamber’s rules.

Update: Two of the last remaining holdouts have confirmed that they will vote for tax reform. Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake says he now supports the bill. Susan Collins said a deal had been reached to include her unspecified property tax deduction amendment in the bill, and she has tentatively said she'll vote yes.

It looks like it's a done deal, folks. Though, of course, the bill will still need to survive reconciliation before it heads to Trump's desk.

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