By the SRSrocco Report,
A SERIOUS CRACK appeared in the markets today. This was due to the lousy payroll report of only 38,000 new jobs for May. The market expected 160,000 new jobs, but it turned out to be more than four times less. This is the worst jobs report since 2010.
We are now in the worst seasonal period for stocks.
The old adage “sell in May and go away” does have some merit. According to the Ned Davis (NDR) database, had you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 every May 1st starting in 1950 and sold October 31 of the same year, your initial position would only be worth $10,026 as of 2008. Put another way, by investing only from May through October, a $10,000 stake invested in 1950 would have only made $26 in 57 years.
At least until yesterday's abysmal jobs report, there was - just like last December - a renewed sense of optimism that just because the Fed had gotten surprisingly hawkish in recent weeks (just like it did in November) starting with the FOMC minutes, passing through the speeches of numerous Fed presidents, and culminating with last Friday's Janet Yellen appearance, that the US economy was once again set for a major rebound, leading to a substantial repricing higher in rate hike odds which was also coupled with a boost in risk sentiment.
Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,
Today we offer up five market counterfactuals – “What ifs” – to both illustrate why large cap U.S. equities just closed near their highest levels of 2016 and consider the conventional wisdom about whether the current rally is sustainable.
Our home base: where asset prices and other trends started the year.
Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Another week of going nowhere, really.
The good news is that this sideways pattern of market action over the last year will come to an end and likely very soon.
The only question investors have to get right is whether that resolution will be a continuation of the bull market that began in 2009 OR will it be the beginning of a more protracted bear market decline.