In 17 of the 19 times in the last 100 years that Industrial Production has contracted for 3 consecutive months, the US economy has entered recession. Today 0.7% drop YoY is the 3rd month of declines.
The only times in the last 100 years that 3 months of US Industrial Production contraction has not coincided with a recession was in 1934 and 1952... (and the current decline is larger than 1952's in aggregate)
While we have generally disagreed with Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker flipflopping on stocks some two years ago, or just as the market was topping out, we can't find fault with his latest note released today in which he openly admits that "our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately. As my 90-year old Latin teacher used to tell the class in 1985, “son, you are in left field, without a glove, with the sun in your eyes."
Following the December 2 horrific mass shooting in San Benardino, Judge Sheri Pym of U.S. District Court in Los Angeles said on Tuesday that Apple must provide "reasonable technical assistance" to investigators seeking to unlock data on - in other words hack - an iPhone 5C that had been owned by Syed Rizwan Farook, one of the San Bernardino shooters.
Tim Cook has refused to comply.
It has been a morning session of two halves.
In Asia, the mood was somber, and stocks fell with the Shanghai Composite (+1.1%) outperforming on another late session binge-fest by the National Team, and the Nikkei 225 (-1.4%), Hang Seng -1%, Kospi -0.2%, ASX -0.6%, Sensex -0.4% and the South Korean Won all down following news of the biggest Chinese Yuan devaluation in five weeks.
Sens. Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) repeated some boilerplate hawkish nostrums on foreign policy in a recent op-ed. They concluded:
We say this delicately, as we work hard to respect the office of the presidency, but our allies everywhere are baffled. We asked one head of state, What single lesson would you like us to report back to our bosses, our constituents? The reply: “Get us a U.S. president who will know that the U.S. needs to lead. We need you. All the freedom-loving nations of the world need you.”