United States

Two months ago, when we calculated that the US would need a new "debt ceiling" of $19.6 trillion to last until after Obama's tenure, we may have been too optimistic: since the increase in the hard debt limit of $18.15 trillion which was raised at the end of October, the US appears to be growing its debt at a far faster pace than we had originally expected, and according to the latest public debt data, as of the last day of January, total US debt just hit 19,012,827,698,417.93.

Financial stocks account for 16 per cent of the S&P 500 in the US, and their 9 per cent slide last month is the biggest single reason the benchmark index is now 5 per cent lower than at the start of the year.

But, as The FT reports, the options market is currently suggesting a worst-case scenario of a 28% decline in financial stocks over the next three months, according to none other than Myron Scholes who currently works at Janus Capital.

Back before everyone became a junk bond expert, we repeatedly showed what in our opinion was the scariest chart for not only the US, but global stock markets: the unprecedented divergence between the stocks and junk bonds, suggesting that if the recent past is prologue, then the S&P 500 is in for a world of pain as it tracks HY credit far lower.

Since then, these fears have been realized and the market tumbled, unleashing even more central bank jawboning and intervention.

Submitted by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

As most market structure watchers are well aware, the biggest debate currently roiling the field of equity markets revolves around the August 21, 2015 submission by the dark pool made famous by Michael Lewis' Flash Boys, IEX, in which it seekis to become a public trading venue that will compete with the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market. What makes IEX different from all other "lit" venues and markets is its embedded technology which implements a 350 microsecond order delay which makes HFT frontrunning, spoofing, and quote stuffing of orders impossible.