United States

On October 30, the BOJ was widely expected to do something and disappointed markets by doing nothing.

Then, on December 3, the ECB had pushed markets into a rabid, EURUSD-shorting frenzy only to dramatically disappoint by doing the barest of minimums compared to the historic pre-jawboning by Draghi and company.

Today, according to the market there is nearly a ~80% probability that the Fed will announce the first rate hike, precisely 7 years to the day after it cut rates to zero.

Kerry’s Moscow Meeting: A Hopeful Sign?

Paul Craig Roberts

As those of you who support this website know, the deal we made is that this is your site, and it will remain up as long as you support it. Many of you have kept our bargain.

Today this website alone has hundreds of thousands of readers, and millions more from the many websites in the US and abroad that republish my columns. But only a relatively few readers financially support the website. The reluctance of Americans to support those who give them truth is one reason Americans have so little of it.

Back on September 20 (so, a full ten days before a three star Russian general strolled into the US Embassy in Baghdad to let the US know that airstrikes in Syria “start in 1 hour”), we said that the US strategy in Syria had officially unraveled. 

For the third month in a row US Industrial Production dropped MoM, crashing 0.6% in November (against expectations of a mere 0.2% drop). This is the 9th month of 2015 with no MoM increase in industrial production and is the biggest MoM drop since March 2012. However, for the first time since Dec 2009, Industrial Production fell YoY (down 1.2%) signalling America is deep in recession. The excuse blame is "unusually warm weather" which sent the utilities index down 4.3% as demand for heating tumbled.

The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible", which however as we explained yesterday, is not really possible. For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish.