United States

Speaking on Bloomberg Radio to Kathleen Hays this morning, outspoken St.Louis Fed chair James Bullard dropped two somewhat shocking reality-check tape-bombs... that we are sure will quickly be rescinded and translated for the hard-of-understanding...

First, Bullard was aksed about concerns over a US economic recession. He began with the 'standard' response of any establishment type:

"I don't see any recession on the horizon."

One of the recurring themes of broad market complacency has been traders' unwillingness to price in, or even react, to surging geopolitical risk.

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks.

Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat

A couple of days, I did a post in which I mused about "One Possible Path", which included this critical element that would precede a market tumble:

Well, maybe we've already got our "something"