United States

Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea seems just one harshly worded tweet away, and the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, as well as for the US stopping Kim Jong-Un from obtaining a nuclear-armed ICBM closing fast, analysts have started to analyze President Trump’s military options, what a war between the US and North Korea would look like, and what the global economic consequences would be.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced that it was imposing sanctions on eight more Venezuelan individuals, including the brother of the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, for "undermining democracy in the South American country." The Treasury statement said seven are current or former Venezuelan government officials, whom the U.S.

Speaking on Bloomberg Radio to Kathleen Hays this morning, outspoken St.Louis Fed chair James Bullard dropped two somewhat shocking reality-check tape-bombs... that we are sure will quickly be rescinded and translated for the hard-of-understanding...

First, Bullard was aksed about concerns over a US economic recession. He began with the 'standard' response of any establishment type:

"I don't see any recession on the horizon."

One of the recurring themes of broad market complacency has been traders' unwillingness to price in, or even react, to surging geopolitical risk.

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks.