United States

When we reported yesterday about Putin's surprisingly harsh response to last week's House legislation to launch new sanctions against Russia, which also binds Trump from unilaterally removing sanctions without getting Congressional approval, we concluded that "now we await the US re-retaliation in what is once again the same tit-for-tat escalation that marked the latter years of the Obama regime, as the US Military Industrial Complex breathes out a sigh of relief that for all the posturing by Trump, things between Russia and the US are back on autopilot."

There is no getting away from it: in what has become a long-running tradition, every day brings a new explanation (or at least attempt) to the current low-vol regime from a major bank, and today it was (again) Bank of America's turn to explain why the VIX, and cross asset vol in general, both continue to trade near all time low.

With Gen. John Kelly set to be sworn in as Trump's new Chief of Staff, just days after the latest and most advanced North Korean ICBM test yet, one which can reportedly reach as much as half the major metro areas on the continental US, President Trump on Monday pledged to "handle" North Korea's provocative belligerence, without specifying exactly how he would do so as he faces rising tensions and limited options.

In April, the Fed's otherwise boring Beige Book revealed a striking anecdote about the current state of the US labor market: as the Boston Fed commented at the time, the qualified labor shortage had gotten so bad, that the hit rate on hiring after a simple math and drug test, has collapsed below 50%. To wit:

As many traders quietly leave for summer break soaking up even more liquidity as they go, a busy US calendar unfolds in the week ahead, with ISM, PCE price data and, of course, payrolls in the spotlight.

Key Events, courtesy of RanSquawk