United States

By Shant Movsesian and Raj Dhall MSTA,

This week has not been one to savor for USD bulls, with the FOMC rate hike accompanied by a statement which failed to generate the fresh wave of hawkish sentiment markets had positioned for. We saw some hesitancy ahead of the Fed announcement Wednesday evening, with Fed chair Yellen’s familiar cautiousness reining in UST yields to a modest degree. The subsequent pull back has also been relatively modest with the 2yr shedding 5bps on the week as a whole; both 5yr and 10yr off the highs by some 10bps.

Last weekend, after looking at the latest H.8 statement by the Fed, we noted something concerning: total loans and leases by U.S. commercial banks were rising at an annual pace of about 4.6%, based on weekly Fed data. That is down from a 6.4% pace for all of last year and peak rates of around 8% in mid-2016. This is the slowest pace of debt creation since the spring of 2014. This deceleration has prompted numerous questions about the sustainability of the recovery, and led the WSJ to noted that the slowdown, "is at odds with the idea of a stronger economy and rising sentiment."

The pleasantries, lack of handshake between Trump and Merkel notwithstanding, are officially over.

One day after Trump returned to his favorite medium to slam Germany for abusing NATO's funding scheme, and US defense spending generosity, accusing Germany of owing "vast sums" of money to both NATO and the US, Germany has struck back. As a reminder, this is what Trump tweeted on Saturday morning:

Authored by MN Gordon via Acting-Man.com,

Onward vs. Upward

Something both unwanted and unexpected has tormented western economies in the 21st century.  Gross domestic product (GDP) has moderated onward while government debt has spiked upward.  Orthodox economists continue to be flummoxed by what has transpired.

One day after Rex Tillerson warned that the US is contemplating a pre-emptive military attack on North Korea, the isolated nation announced it has conducted a ground test of a new type of high-thrust rocket engine that leader Kim Jong Un is calling a "revolutionary breakthrough" for the country's space program, the North's state media said Sunday.