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White House Prepares For Trade War, Warns US "Will Not Be Bound By WTO Decisions"

In the latest warning from the White House that it is set to unleash trade policy that will be in sharp conflict with generally accepted trade norms, most likely a reference to some form of Border Adjustment Tax, the Trump administration has warned that the U.S. isn't and won't bound by decisions made at the World Trade Organization, in outlining a new trade agenda that "promises to root out unfair practices by foreign countries" and to escalate what are already simmering trade conflicts.

Only A Trade-A-Saurus Bets On Recoupling

Only A Trade-A-Saurus Bets On Recoupling

Via Kevin Muir of The Macro Tourist blog,

The easiest way to become a trade-a-saurus is to assume correlations will continue forever and mindlessly fade divergences with the assumption they will recouple. Yet these divergences often offer clues that something might have changed and deserve further investigation.

Over the past couple of decades, ten year US inflation breakeven levels have traded inversely with the US dollar. This should be no surprise and makes sense. Lower US dollar equals more inflation.

WTI/RBOB Tumble As US Crude Inventories Hit New Record High, Production Surges

WTI/RBOB Tumble As US Crude Inventories Hit New Record High, Production Surges

After API's surprise gasoline build (sending RBOB prices lower), DOE reported a draw (though smaller than expected) but crude saw the 8th weekly build in a row - pushing US crude inventories to a new record high. Production continued to surge (above 9mm) to new cycle highs.

 

API

  • Crude +2.502mm (+3mm exp)
  • Cushing +544k
  • Gasoline +1.84mm (-1.5mm exp)
  • Distillates -3.73mm

DOE

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