You are here

US Federal Reserve

From "Promise" To "Payback" - Here Are The Five Stages of The "Trump Trade"

As Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin puts it, without getting too cute about it, "there are probably five defining stages for the “Trump trade”: Trading i) ‘the promise’; ii) the deal-making; iii) the enactment; iv) the economic impact, and, v) the payback."

Here are the details as market pscyhology shifts from phase 1 to stage 2, which DB says took place during last week's Trump press conference, and what markets can expect going forward.

The five stages of the Trump trade

Futures Rise On Friday 13th Ahead Of Deluge Of Bank Earnings; Dollar Continues To Decline

Futures Rise On Friday 13th Ahead Of Deluge Of Bank Earnings; Dollar Continues To Decline

European shares rose as Fiat rebounded on hopes concerns about parallel to Volkswagen are overblown, Asian stocks were little as Chinese shares fell to the lowest level of 2017 after poor export data, and U.S. equity-index futures rose ahead of a deluge of bank earnings. The dollar is headed for a weekly loss and gold trades at the highest price in almost two months.

Chatter Of Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Spikes Yield Curve

Chatter Of Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Spikes Yield Curve

While the Fed watchers have been obsessing in recent weeks about the pace and size of any upcoming Fed rate hikes, summarized best by Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan who earlier today said:

  • KAPLAN: AMONG BIGGEST DISAGREEMENTS AT FED IS ON HOW QUICKLY TO RAISE RATES

... and unexpected new buzzword emerged today, namely Fed balance sheet unwind when first Philly Fed's Steve Harker noted it in his speech earlier this morning...

Pages