US Federal Reserve

With 100% chance of at least a 25bps hike (and 10% chance of 50bps), this was perhaps the most 'priced in' of any Fed meeting ever. Of course, it is not whether the Fed hikes or not at a given meeting that matters, but rather what kind of overall hiking cycle it communicates, and so attention is focused on changes to the 'dot-plot'. No surprise here: FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BPS, REPEATS GRADUAL POLICY PATH PLAN, but the forecast is more hawkish: FED OFFICIALS SEE THREE 2017 RATE HIKES VS TWO IN SEPT.

With The Fed expected to raise interest rates in a few minutes, (and likely jawbone about how the path to normalization is now progressing well), we thought it worth a reminder that FOMC officials’ quarterly interest-rate projections have gone nowhere but down since the last time they were marked up in September 2014.

As the infamous 'dot plot' reveals, Fed forecasts of rates for 2017 have fallen in line with the market's perceived credibility of the failing institution...

You decide if what The Fed says today is worth paying any attention!

When it comes to today's FOMC decision, there is little speculation: a 25 bps rate hike, the first in 2016 and only the second since the financial crisis, is now effectively assured: all 103 Bloomberg-surveyed economists expect a 25bp increase. The market agrees, and as shown in the chart below, implied rate hike odds are at 100%, with some even speculating that the Fed may hike by 50 bps.

Submitted by Paul-Martin Foss via The Mises Institute,